TODAY: A WTF ‘Find Your Happy Place’ Happy Hour with Martin Sheil!

Retired IRS criminal investigator Martin Sheil joins Bette’s Happy Hour, Tuesday, 4/8, noon Pacific for a breakdown on the economic fallout — this event begins in three hours

***Registration for paid members is below the paywall. To join our Speakeasy and Happy Hour events, please take out a membership.***

Our favorite ex-fed Martin Sheil is going to walk us through the economic fallout. He told me that he “won’t likely have any good news with regards to the American economy other than commenting on the acceleration of Trump’s downfall.”

“One benefit floating under the radar is the price fall of worldwide petroleum which is completely toxic to the Kremlin,” he said.

Those who’ve been with me from the beginning have spent many an hour getting educated by our brilliant friend Marty, who spent decades busting guys with names like Fat Larry by following the money.

Here is a preview from today’s conversation with Marty:

H,

The economy is a debacle

Theme should be "Find your Happy Place" - you will be spending a lot of time there.

If Trump does not come off these tariffs toute de suite as the French say - the retaliatory spiral will be devastating and brings to mind the phrase History repeating itself - as almost 100 years ago Smoot Hawley tariffs led to the Depression which led to WW II...

I feel good that the MAGA tribe should truly suffer in any coming elections since everyone'e 401K is shrinking and quickly and that has consequences but I was thinking about making a slightly academic overview of basic economic theory here which might be helpful to the viewers.

Here’s a visual explainer:

GNP = C + I + G + (E- I)

GNP = Gross National Product

C = Consumption

I = Investment

G = Government spending

E = Exports

I = Imports

So Gross National Product is a function of Total National Consumption plus total national Investment plus Total government spending. plus total exports minus total imports

(E-I) is the problem variable in the above equation that Trump's tariffs are addressing and really messing up. It is also the smallest weighted variable in the overall economic equation but its impacts are large since everything in the equation is related.

Exports minus Imports for the American economy reflects a Trade Deficit.

The U.S. is importing much more than we are exporting and instead of Trump allowing free trade factors (read MARKET) correct itself, he is attempting to artificially use Tariffs to PROTECT American industry and the end result of his ham handed imposition of Tariffs will end up doing great harm as the cost of tariffs will be passed onto the consumer which causes a huge ripple effect..

Consumption is the single biggest variable in the above equation representing probably a 75% weight In the above equation for the U.S. economy.

Should American consumption go down 5%-10% over the year as early estimates project then we are looking at Recession and should it go down further than that - Depression.

Consumption going down will also be a drag on Investment in the U.S. which brings on the very real possibility of Stagflation. meaning costs going up factors into inflation while the lack of investment into the economy reflects a stagnation of the economy. Think mid 1970's

Needless to say, if the American consumer is consuming less because costs are eating up available cash then companies will not be profiting and will go out of business causing a significant uptick in Unemployment which clearly causes a negative impact on Consumption which drags down Investment and the vicious cycle just repeats itself.

The retaliatory nature of a Trade War where countries are placing tariffs tit for tat on each other suggests the real possibility of a global recession which could take a decade or more to recover from.

Overall, not a pretty picture.

Find your Happy place!

Other Economic observations:

1. OPEC + recent decision to increase petroleum supply means a significant price reduction globally. That is good news for those of us who drive a lot but it is terrible macroeconomic news for the Kremlin who depend on Petro profits to fund their war time economy which is almost wholly dependent on Petro sales to fund the manufacturing of artillery shells et al.

2. Currency valuations are going to be really hard to predict. But countries already suffering from weak economies will likely be looking at further currency devaluations as tariffs take hold. This cannot be good news for Russia(which we should note are not subject to Tariffs), but for those of you contemplating some international travel your timing might be good if in fact you are brave enough to travel overseas...

3. Should Stagflation beckon that will not be a good scenario for those who wish to buy a house/condo since Interest rates could be really volatile

4. New homes will be priced higher since Lumber from Canada is looking at significant Tariffs ... ugh!

5. Thinking about buying a car? Woof! New car prices will be through the roof as every new car contains parts made in foreign countries even if assembled in the states and those parts will be Tariffed and the costs will be passed on and tacked onto the final price. Used car purchases may be the way to go but competition for quality used cars will likely be fierce and if the demand for used cars outstrips available supply that means HIGHER prices - oh my!

6. I don't really have to tell you that Electronics items e.g. Big screen TVs, stereos etc. are made in Asia and those made in China will be cost prohibitive

7. You don't want to be a farmer now Oy vey! Trump is going to have to bail out our farmers and soon or the situation is going to be really ugly. Big problem is the US Agriculture Department is getting DOGed as we speak and folks will not be available to service the farmers in getting agricultural subsidies if in fact they are made available.

I will stop here since I was trying to focus on some of the Economic impacts of the Tariff catastrophe stoked by the Trumpster but politics will soon infect almost all discussion with regard to Tariffs. I guess I cannot imagine Trumpy walking down the aisle of a Walmart or Target shopping for some baby shoes made in Hong Kong and having any sympathy for those who must - much less caring about the price of eggs...or caring much about anything other than winning his local club golf championship or getting more Universities and law firms to knuckle under to his hard nosed autocratic threats...

Liberated much??????

Head to your Happy Place!

Marty

Thank you so much to new and returning members. Keep scrolling for registration link, and hope to see you in the squares!

Marty in his happy place.

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