For Our Freedom and Yours: 'Russians, Go Home!'
Thoughts from global experts and historians on Orbán's ouster; and how overnight the EU and Ukraine have been strengthened and Putin and Trump weakened
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“Only when Orbán is on a plane to Moscow will I believe Putin was defeated.”—me on Twitter
I was traveling out of London when I started receiving gifs from Monique Camarra and Alex Alvarova.
This one from Mo’:
This one from Alex:
I, too, wanted to celebrate the expulsion of Viktor Orbán, but it’s been too long of a decade for me to greet any potential good news with anything less than cautious pessimism, despite being a natural born optimist.
Why would Putin allow Orbán to be defeated, when he had been a profoundly effective thorn in the EU’s side? Is it really possible that the new Hungarian leader, 45-year-old Péter Magyar, is actually decent or is he just another plant? We’ve seen every variation of this before and only years from now — when we review his actions — can we be certain.
Watching Orbán readily accept defeat, ending his corrupt reign as PM, also rang a discordant bell, when he had signaled he was gearing up for a fight.
But with Magyar’s Tisza party set to secure two-thirds of seats in parliament, globally, it’s a clear defeat for Trump and his lackey, JD Vance, who interfered in the election process by showing up in Hungary to promote Orbán.
I Came By My Cautious Pessimism Honestly
I’ll never forget my friend from Hungary, who believed in Orbán all those decades ago, and even helped him with his 2010 campaign, only to find out that Orbán lied — in reality, he was a wholly owned subsidiary of the Kremlin.
I think it broke something in him.
Like when Ukrainians elected Viktor Yanukovych — the ‘gangster they knew’ — who had promised to move the country toward the EU, only to lie, sparking a revolution.
Russians, Go Home!
As political philosopher Michael MacKay wrote last night:
Ukrainians had their “Russians, go home!” moment with the Revolution of Dignity in 2013-14.
Hungarians had their “Russians, go home!” moment tonight.
It would be a fine thing if Americans have a “Russians, go home!” moment and oust Putin-puppet Trump.—Michael MacKay
It would be a very fine thing if Americans have a “Russians, go home!” moment, but that requires Americans to actually see that the US is under Russian occupation, and I don’t think we’re there yet, despite the obvious signs.
When Orbán was being booed on stage last week, however, and people were shouting “Russians, go home!” it did feel like it could be Orbán’s Ceaușescu moment. Just maybe…
I hoped it would be, but as I wrote on Twitter:
Only when Orbán is on a plane to Moscow will I believe Putin was defeated.
To which, a friend responded with this meme — a boarding pass to Moscow with Orbán’s name:
Pangs of hope.
If Magyar is a real one, he should haul Orbán in for interrogation and confiscate his address book.
Under Orbán, Hungary became the most corrupt country in the EU, with Orbán a predator against press freedom, who built himself a media empire that answered to him.
As I wrote in my original Unmusked report:
In 2018, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban encouraged owners of hundreds of Hungarian media properties to ‘donate’ them to a Government allied foundation. The Central European Press and Media Foundation (CEMPF) began absorbing cable news channels, internet platforms, newspapers, radio stations, and magazines. The result was a centralized right-wing Government-controlled media syndicate.
Freedom of the press has been on a steady decline in Hungary ever since.
Orban’s attacks on the rule of law ramped up during the COVID-19 pandemic, when he declared a state of emergency and began seizing unlimited power to rule by decree. Among the targeted groups were the LGBTQ+ community, women, journalists, academia, and asylum seekers.
Although Russia watcher Keir Giles taught me a long time ago to never ask binary questions when viewing Putin and the Kremlin’s actions or lack thereof — he explained, that sometimes they’ll simply sit out an election for no reason that is obvious — but I can’t help but think losing Orbán in the EU can only be catastrophic for Russkiy mir.
I’d like to think the young people stood up and voted in a free and fair election for change and that everything will be rainbows and unicorns from here, but understanding Russia’s global assault on democracy — with 74 percent of the world’s population now living under authoritarian rule — I will feel more confident when all that is left of the Kremlin is ash and a sign that reads “For Crimes Against Humanity.” And ditto for Trump’s regime. The world is not safe from these predators.
I was, however, happy to see Macron not let any moss grow in offering a hearty FU to Orbán as he welcomed Magyar.
For Our Freedom and Yours
To breathe some hope into the room, I asked my colleagues for their hot takes on the Hungarian election, and here is what they said:
Dr. Marci Shore, intellectual historian, chair, European Intellectual History, Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, University of Toronto, and author of The Ukrainian Night:
I’m desperately hoping that it means we’ve finally, finally gotten to the part of the movie where the good guys start winning.
I just came back to Toronto from New York/New Haven today with Kalev, and when the flight landed, and I turned on the phone and saw a message from a friend in Budapest saying “Tisza has won by a huge margin - Orbán has just conceded…”, I couldn’t believe it (or rather, I couldn’t believe the part that he conceded)…
By the way, in New Haven, I was meeting with grad students I work with, one of whom is my age, a retired military officer who served in Afghanistan and Iraq and has been following Ukraine very, very closely. And he said the Ukrainians have been militarily doing very, very well in the past months, more so than people realize, and that the drone technology they’ve developed is fantastic. (I’m obvious not in a position to judge, but I definitely trust Mike on those kinds of analyses.)
There’s an old Polish insurrectionary slogan, associated in particular with the 19th century uprisings, which goes “Za wolność naszą i waszą” — meaning “for our freedom and yours.” That kept going through my head watching Hungary today.—Dr. Marci Shore for Bette Dangerous
Geopolitical analyst and Kremlin File/EuroFile host Monique Camarra:
Re Orban: Peter Magyar, and the Tisza Party, resoundingly woppled Viktor Orban, and his Fidesz Party elites, by telling the truth about their country. Hungarian voters, young people especially, rejected the ugly reality Orban had wielded for the past 16 years--institutional corruption and co-option, palpable economic decline, and a foreign policy that bled into comprehensive coercion as servant to Russia and China to the detriment of Hungary and the wider EU.
Magyar has promised not to block the 90 billion euros the EU Commission is ready to give to Ukraine, although he hasn’t said Hungary would provide direct military aid. He’s got a lot to do to reverse years of elite capture, starting with Peter Szijarto’s treasonous relationship with the Russian elite, as well as other Orban-aligned elites.
What made me smile last night, as Orban conceded to Magyar, was that Putin’s plans for a Mitteleuropa stronghold have been weakened, and all those billions evaporated into thin air in the face of the truth. Slovakia doesn’t have the heft to bring the project forward.
Overnight, the EU has been strengthened--the head of the Patriots dethroned. I sent out some messages last night to a few investigators who, over the years, didn’t fold, didn’t step back, from exposing Orban’s porky lies, and what Hungary had become, and I sent them hugs, grateful for their courage. To friends fighting the same battle, history is never pre-determined.—Monique Camarra for Bette Dangerous
Disinformation analyst and editor of Inved.eu (Institut zur
Verteidigung der Europäischen Demokratien) and founder of the Disinfo Resilience Network, Dietmar Pichler:
This election result is significant, and the circumstances are quite unique when it comes to foreign influence regarding this election. The US president and vice president, JD Vance, openly endorsed Viktor Orbán, and Vance even traveled to Hungary. Additionally, Donald Trump announced an economic support package for Orbán that seemed like a kind of “teaser” for the reelection.
We know that Orbán is the Kremlin’s favorite candidate, and we know about his anti-Ukraine stance. I could also witness during my last trip to Hungary how the whole campaign of Orbán was based on anti-Ukraine messaging. So the fact that, despite the combined US and Russian influence and the very much Orbán-controlled Hungarian media environment, Hungarians had enough of the Orbán regime is significant.
This shows not only that influence campaigns and propaganda have their limits, but also that a “damaged democracy” can still be repaired, which of course will take years after all the damage the Orbán regime did, for instance, to the media sector but also to other institutions. The winners of this election are the European Union and Ukraine. The losers are MAGA, Vladimir Putin, but also Alexander Lukashenko, China, and Turkey. Orbán maintained very warm relations with autocracies and put a lot of effort into splitting and weakening the European Union. Hopefully, this era ends now.—Dietmar Pichler for Bette Dangerous
Geopolitical analyst Joni Askola, producer of Askola Geopolitics:
Viktor Orbán’s defeat is a monumental victory that frees Hungary from a corrupt authoritarian taking direct orders from Moscow and finally unblocks crucial European funds for Ukraine.
Péter Magyar does not need to be a savior. Simply refusing to centralize power, playing by EU rules, cleaning out corrupt loyalists, and ignoring Russian dictates makes him a massive improvement over the last sixteen years.
Regarding the global impact, the truth lies between extreme statements on whether this will stop the rise of illiberalism in the West or not. Orbán did not lose because of his pro-Russian, treasonous stances, but because his domestic agenda completely failed. Hungarians simply had enough of low growth, high inflation, expensive but failing birth rate policies, and constant lies. He promised a lot and failed to deliver. While his ouster does not solve the root causes driving far-right populism in the West, it delivers a devastating symbolic blow to its international franchise. Extremist networks such as CPAC and think tanks like the Heritage Foundation treated Hungary as a laboratory for dismantling democracy, selling the lie that Orbán’s model was a popular and successful blueprint. That illusion is now dead. The rise of illiberalism will not stop until we address its underlying causes, but Hungary just proved that authoritarian success is not inevitable and authoritarians can absolutely be beaten.—Joni Askola for Bette Dangerous
Disinformation analyst and co-host of Canaries in the Net and Radio Free America, Prague, Alex Alvarova:
Bagman gone. He was the financial Zombie King of the network and someone just stabbed him with garlic stick in his heart.—Alex Alvarova for Bette Dangerous
Reading the words from my very astute friends is reigniting my natural born optimism and even a bit of hopium.
We have to believe the world is better than all this darkness we’ve been fed for the past decade.
But you can forgive my caution: this past week, I had very uncomfortable conversations in England, where no one I spoke with had heard of convicted Russian propagandist and bribe taker, Nathan Gill, the former head of Reform UK Wales, UKIP Wales, and former member of EU Parliament. Gill’s cohort, Nigel Farage, is seen by too many people I spoke with as a patriot, and not as Russian stooge. A friend of mine blames the BBC, who puts Farage on to spew his propaganda to the masses all too frequently, as embodied in this brilliant video:
When Monique sent me this screenshot of an old Farage comment, I thought it was a fake.
So did she.
Eyes wide open, hope in heart, the work continues.
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The majority of Americans are too politically ignorant and/or naive to have a “Russians Go Home”conscious moment. It will be more of a “corruption causing my gas prices to soar” moment, and I see it coming. Hungary, thanks for the anti-corruption script.